On peak indecisiveness

Summing Bitfinex's margin BTCUSD long and short positioning charts gives us an indication of speculator decisiveness. You can pull this chart up on TradingView with "BTCUSDLONGS+BTCUSDSHORTS". To be clear this is a view into speculator margin trade activity, in essence the volume they are borrowing from funders in order…

Fees paid to Bitcoin miners by year

If the Bitcoin network was a payments startup this chart would track its annual sales.  Total fees paid to miners by year: 2010: $3.8k 2011: $33k 2012: $66k 2013: $2.2m 2014: $2.5m 2015: $2.3m 2016: $13.6m 2017: $555m 2018: $296m…

Utility is a red herring, look for organic store of value

This article was first tweeted in short form on 9th Jan 2019.Store of value properties is what gives crypto networks value, utility is overrated for the purposes of investment appreciation. Utility is a red herring for investors. In the case of Bitcoin, its real utility is really just a…

Why HODL?

Why HODL? It allows you to capture the gains of the market. Trading lets you beat it. In that zero-sum game, 10% of participants win, 90% lose. Are your skills in the top 10%? If not and you're still winning it's due to luck. Unfortunately being on the right side…

Overheard in a chatroom: Forecasting vs predicting

I think of TA [technical analysis and charting that traders do] in exactly this forecast context. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt are forecasters. He's had decades of trading, he's removed much of his personal bias. He looks at chart setups more objectively.…

My thoughts on Bitcoin's network congestion

Here's a wee chart below to illustrate my thoughts on Bitcoin's transactional network the last two years. The Bitcoin network hasn’t been able to keep up with peak transactional demand since 2016, since 2017 it hasn’t been able to keep up with the AVERAGE transactional demand. Meanwhile our…

The state of crypto-markets Q4, 2017

Preface: Last week I spoke in front of an audience of 1000 fund managers, bankers, and private equity folk in New York City at the inaugural Concensus Invest conference organised by CoinDesk. Here are my slides and commentary. Special thanks to CoinDesk for making the day possible. I don’t…