This is a thread on altcoins, first published on Twitter.Altcoins are nuanced. We have:Protocol coinsUtility tokensSecurity tokensNon-fungible tokensBut to an investor, there's only 2 types. Oscillators and Degenerators. You can spot them on this chart of the entire market. The vast majority of alt-coins are Degenerators. Their price…
Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best times to buy Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so we can easily see the rate of change in difficulty.How it the Difficulty Ribbon worksThis visualisation of network…
For those familiar with NVT Ratio, the data from the early years comes off very skewed, sometimes written off as noisy rubbish data.To answer the mystery of early NVT moonage, come with me on a trip down memory lane and visit the transactional data of Bitcoin's early years.How…
Two approaches to bring bitcoin-days-destroyed into the price domainOkay, so this article is now well overdue given the recent price action. BTC never rests! The last few months have been very productive in terms of discovering new valuation metrics based on on-chain analytics. The recent proposals using coindays destroyed by…
Let's delve into a mystery of this 2018-2019 bear market that David Puell and Murad Mahmudov and I have been exploring for months... Why does on-chain volume look so bearish while many of our other (to be published) metrics tell a more positive story?Up to now, whenever you saw…
Summing Bitfinex's margin BTCUSD long and short positioning charts gives us an indication of speculator decisiveness. You can pull this chart up on TradingView with "BTCUSDLONGS+BTCUSDSHORTS". To be clear this is a view into speculator margin trade activity, in essence the volume they are borrowing from funders in order…
If the Bitcoin network was a payments startup this chart would track its annual sales. Total fees paid to miners by year: 2010: $3.8k 2011: $33k 2012: $66k 2013: $2.2m 2014: $2.5m 2015: $2.3m 2016: $13.6m 2017: $555m 2018: $296m…
This article was first tweeted in short form on 9th Jan 2019.Store of value properties is what gives crypto networks value, utility is overrated for the purposes of investment appreciation. Utility is a red herring for investors. In the case of Bitcoin, its real utility is really just a…
Why HODL? It allows you to capture the gains of the market. Trading lets you beat it. In that zero-sum game, 10% of participants win, 90% lose. Are your skills in the top 10%? If not and you're still winning it's due to luck. Unfortunately being on the right side…
I think of TA [technical analysis and charting that traders do] in exactly this forecast context. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt are forecasters. He's had decades of trading, he's removed much of his personal bias. He looks at chart setups more objectively.…