Why HODL? It allows you to capture the gains of the market. Trading lets you beat it. In that zero-sum game, 10% of participants win, 90% lose. Are your skills in the top 10%? If not and you're still winning it's due to luck. Unfortunately being on the right side…
I think of TA [technical analysis and charting that traders do] in exactly this forecast context. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt are forecasters. He's had decades of trading, he's removed much of his personal bias. He looks at chart setups more objectively.…
I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive yet completely wrong move long term investors make. Maybe your portfolio starts off nice and balanced and may look something like this... Maybe ICO “C” is that coin you bought only because your…
NVT Ratio is a new valuation indicator that I introduced last year based on network fundamentals, namely value flowing through the blockchain. I was delighted to find Dmitry Kalichki created a much more responsive variation which I've been calling NVT Signal. What is NVT Signal? Standard NVT Ratio is simply…
Here's a wee chart below to illustrate my thoughts on Bitcoin's transactional network the last two years. The Bitcoin network hasn’t been able to keep up with peak transactional demand since 2016, since 2017 it hasn’t been able to keep up with the AVERAGE transactional demand. Meanwhile our…
Preface: Last week I spoke in front of an audience of 1000 fund managers, bankers, and private equity folk in New York City at the inaugural Concensus Invest conference organised by CoinDesk. Here are my slides and commentary. Special thanks to CoinDesk for making the day possible. I don’t…
Bankers say it's a Bubble. Technologist say it's Disruption. Students of history say it's the Dawn of the Digital Age. This is my 10,000 year view of cryptocurrency in one infographic.…
Preface February of this year, I tweeted a chart that presented the idea of a PE ratio for Bitcoin, something I temporarily called MTV Ratio before my buddy Chris Burniske suggested the less confusing term of NVT Ratio (Network Value[1] to Transactions Ratio). Later in May, Chris was the…
Here's a sequel infographic to my last one showing the Bitcoin Network under congestion. After one month of Segwit activation, 4% of transactions on the Bitcoin Network is using the new protocol. It's already having an impact. Congestion is now down to early 2016 levels and dropping rapidly as more…
I’ve put together this infographic to help explain the 8x bubble that altcoins has seen in the last two months. Two words: Scaling Debate. Bitcoin’s scaling deadlock has not resolved and transactions on its network are now at full capacity without a clear resolution in the near future.…