Research

Supply Shock, predicting price by quantifying intent to buy and sell

Introduction In any market, price is driven by demand and supply. This is a fundamental. The most obvious way of seeing this is in the bid and asks between buyers and sellers. A more nuanced way would be to wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before

Research

Introducing the Difficulty Ribbon, signaling the best times to buy Bitcoin

Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best times to buy Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so we can easily see the rate of change in difficulty. How it the Difficulty Ribbon works This visualisation of

Research

When did Bitcoin's investment era begin? A study using NVT.

For those familiar with NVT Ratio, the data from the early years comes off very skewed, sometimes written off as noisy rubbish data. To answer the mystery of early NVT moonage, come with me on a trip down memory lane and visit the transactional data of Bitcoin's early years. How

Research

Experiments on Cumulative Destruction

Two approaches to bring bitcoin-days-destroyed into the price domain Okay, so this article is now well overdue given the recent price action. BTC never rests! The last few months have been very productive in terms of discovering new valuation metrics based on on-chain analytics. The recent proposals using coindays destroyed

Research

Why does on-chain volume show an overly bearish picture of the 2018-2019 Bitcoin market?

Let's delve into a mystery of this 2018-2019 bear market that David Puell [https://twitter.com/kenoshaking] and Murad Mahmudov [https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad] and I have been exploring for months... Why does on-chain volume look so bearish while many of our other (to be published) metrics tell a more

Signals

NVT Signal, a new trading indicator to pick tops and bottoms

NVT Ratio [https://woobull.com/introducing-nvt-ratio-bitcoins-pe-ratio-use-it-to-detect-bubbles/] is a new valuation indicator that I introduced last year based on network fundamentals, namely value flowing through the blockchain. I was delighted to find Dmitry Kalichki [https://twitter.com/Kalichkin] created a much more responsive variation [https://medium.com/cryptolab/https-medium-com-kalichkin-rethinking-nvt-ratio-2cf810df0ab0] which I've

Research

Introducing NVT Ratio (Bitcoin's PE Ratio), use it to detect bubbles

Preface February of this year, I tweeted [https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/835015883051298816] a chart that presented the idea of a PE ratio for Bitcoin, something I temporarily called MTV Ratio before my buddy Chris Burniske [https://twitter.com/cburniske] suggested the less confusing term of NVT Ratio (Network Value[

Bitcoin Featured

Determining the ideal block size for Bitcoin, a story of three graphs

One benefit of seeing congestion this early in Bitcoin’s life is we get a great set of data of the network under load. In this study, we’ll take a look at Bitcoin’s transactional data to see if it points to an ideal blocksize, if there is such a thing.

Bitcoin

Using Google Trends to detect Bitcoin price bubbles, and best times to buy

I wrote previously [https://woobull.com/woos-law-of-bitcoin-user-growth-bitcoins-adoption-curve/] that Google Trends on the search term “BTC USD” is a great way to track the growth of active Bitcoin users. The search “BTC USD” is a proxy for the engagement of active Bitcoin users as they check the daily price. In the

Bitcoin

Bitcoin users double every 12 months

Google Trends is my friend. It’s a great tool for reporting search trends over time, and I’ve seen many people publish Trend’s charts of the search term “Buy Bitcoin”, to track Bitcoin’s interest by the public over time. I thought I’d use this tool to

Bitcoin

Estimated price impact from a Bitcoin ETF

This infographic of Bitcoin’s price is something I’ve been pondering today. It tells Bitcoin’s often dramatic price story in fundamental trend lines on top of which lives some serious doses of speculative activity. There’s a lot in this chart so lets break it down. * In late

Bitcoin

Three cats and a moon - a data driven analysis of Bitcoin trader psychology for predictive price signalling

Here at Woobull Labs we take data driven analysis very seriously. Today, I’m pleased to present the culmination of 4 years of data gathering and analysis on Bitcoin trader psychology. The sketch above depicts the basic rig we used for our epic research. The dataset includes readings over 4

Research

Estimating the true Bitcoin trading volumes in China, a data-driven approach

Today Chinese exchanges report 98% of global volume. This shows huge dominance by Chinese markets. Unfortunately we know that most of this volume is fake. Why is it fake? Unlike the rest of the world, Chinese exchanges are unique in that they do not charge fees on trades. Instead they

Bitcoin

The network effects of volatility and liquidity, Bitcoin vs other payment coins

Altcoin volatility proportional to bubble size2016 has been a bull year for privacy coins. Earlier this year we saw mooning of Monero which saw subsequent pumps in other dark-coins including ShadowCash and Navcoin. Then we witnessed a mega-hyped launch of ZCash which peaked at an astounding $5.3k per coin.

Bitcoin

Estimating return potential for altcoins and Bitcoin

I personally think very few people grasp how to gauge the long term return potential of Bitcoin vs altcoins. I often hear people say that Bitcoin is no longer cheap and that altcoins have more return potential being in their earlier stages, while they chase returns similar to Bitcoin’s

Bitcoin

Does ViaBTC have veto power over Segwit activation?

Segregated Witness or Bitcoin Core release 13.1 has been released! This update promises to end a 2 year civil war within Bitcoin’s community over scaling, which unresolved, poses a systemic risk to the network. To the investor, the war has almost certainly had a bearish influence on bitcoin

Bitcoin

Bitcoin volatility will match major fiat currencies by 2019

Bitcoin was created in 2009 by a mysterious character who claimed it to be a payments network. But unlike most other payment networks like PayPal and Visa, it screwed with our minds by having its own token. A token that had a price that floated against other currencies. In basic

Altcoins

An economic comparison of payment coins, who is winning the race?

Last week I created the Commerce Index [https://woobull.com/the-commerce-index/] as a means to measure a coin’s suitability for general commerce. In a nutshell it tracks the property of liquidity and low volatility. Both consumers and merchants want a currency that is stable and has high enough liquidity

Altcoins

Crypto-currency Index Funds, the simulations have surprising results

This year, the idea of managed portfolios and index fund portfolios has been on the rise, you can bet on many hitting the market in 2017. It’s a popular idea borrowed from Wall Street. For stocks 99% of index funds, namely a fund that buys the entire market passively,

Altcoins

The Commerce Index

I’ve decided to come up with a new index to measure how suitable a coin is for generable purpose commerce. For a consumer to hold a coin in their wallet, they want good liquidity and low volatility. Similarly the merchant on the other side of the transaction want the

Altcoins

Historical performance snapshots of the top 10 coins

I ran some charts on the top 10 coins by marketcap, to see how they individually performed had you invested 6, 12, 18, 24 and 30 months ago. Here’s my results. The conclusions are unclear but some thoughts come to mind: * Over the long term (2 years or more)

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Market Cap should be $40b according to Metcalfe's law

Metcalfe’s Law states the value of a network is proportional to the number of members squared. I thought it’d be fun to run the numbers on the Bitcoin Network. Since we don’t have solid figures on the number of active users on the network, I’ve had

Bitcoin

Block size debate : Increasing block size for capacity won't work

Bitcoin’s blockchain is like a telephone party line, it’ll work for a village but it won’t when it scales to the world. Pundits are debating whether we should increase the block size indefinitely to allow more capacity on the network. Well I guess it’s time to