Why HODL?

Why HODL? It allows you to capture the gains of the market. Trading lets you beat it. In that zero-sum game, 10% of participants win, 90% lose. Are your skills in the top 10%? If not and you're still winning it's due to luck. Unfortunately being on the right side…

Overheard in a chatroom: Forecasting vs predicting

I think of TA [technical analysis and charting that traders do] in exactly this forecast context. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt are forecasters. He's had decades of trading, he's removed much of his personal bias. He looks at chart setups more objectively.…

The state of crypto-markets Q4, 2017

Preface: Last week I spoke in front of an audience of 1000 fund managers, bankers, and private equity folk in New York City at the inaugural Concensus Invest conference organised by CoinDesk. Here are my slides and commentary. Special thanks to CoinDesk for making the day possible. I don’t…

Estimated price impact from a Bitcoin ETF

This infographic of Bitcoin’s price is something I’ve been pondering today. It tells Bitcoin’s often dramatic price story in fundamental trend lines on top of which lives some serious doses of speculative activity. There’s a lot in this chart so lets break it down. In late…

The Shitcoin Pattern

Seen this price pattern? Yes? Here’s another one… The first graph is XRP/Ripple, while the second one LTC/Litecoin. But really it could have been any altcoin through to 2014 so you should be familiar with it. It’s what I call the “Shitcoin Pattern”. Prior to 2015,…

Historical Bitcoin returns vs Altcoins

In my pursuit to analyse Altcoin returns if you had bought the entire market like an index fund, I just ran some numbers: Period Bitcoins Altcoins Sep 2013-2016 470% 1970% Sep 2015-2016 170% 268% Sep 2014-2015 -47% 20% Sep 2013-2014 300% 369% I’ve yet to work out risk return…