Bitcoin - Woobull

Introducing the Difficulty Ribbon, signaling the best times to buy Bitcoin

Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best times to buy Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so we can easily see the rate of change in difficulty. How it the Difficulty Ribbon works This visualisation of

Research

When did Bitcoin's investment era begin? A study using NVT.

For those familiar with NVT Ratio, the data from the early years comes off very skewed, sometimes written off as noisy rubbish data. To answer the mystery of early NVT moonage, come with me on a trip down memory lane and visit the transactional data of Bitcoin's early

Research

Experiments on Cumulative Destruction

Two approaches to bring bitcoin-days-destroyed into the price domain Okay, so this article is now well overdue given the recent price action. BTC never rests! The last few months have been very productive in terms of discovering new valuation metrics based on on-chain analytics. The recent proposals using coindays destroyed

Research

Why does on-chain volume show an overly bearish picture of the 2018-2019 Bitcoin market?

Let's delve into a mystery of this 2018-2019 bear market that David Puell [https://twitter.com/kenoshaking] and Murad Mahmudov [https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad] and I have been exploring for months... Why does on-chain volume look so bearish while many of our other (to be published) metrics tell

Bitcoin

My thoughts on Bitcoin's network congestion

Here's a wee chart below to illustrate my thoughts on Bitcoin's transactional network the last two years. The Bitcoin network hasn’t been able to keep up with peak transactional demand since 2016, since 2017 it hasn’t been able to keep up with the AVERAGE

Bitcoin

The state of crypto-markets Q4, 2017

Preface: Last week I spoke in front of an audience of 1000 fund managers, bankers, and private equity folk in New York City at the inaugural Concensus Invest conference organised by CoinDesk. Here are my slides and commentary. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Special thanks to CoinDesk [http://www.coindesk.com] for making the

Bitcoin Featured

Determining the ideal block size for Bitcoin, a story of three graphs

One benefit of seeing congestion this early in Bitcoin’s life is we get a great set of data of the network under load. In this study, we’ll take a look at Bitcoin’s transactional data to see if it points to an ideal blocksize, if there is such a thing.

Bitcoin

Using Google Trends to detect Bitcoin price bubbles, and best times to buy

I wrote previously [https://woobull.com/woos-law-of-bitcoin-user-growth-bitcoins-adoption-curve/] that Google Trends on the search term “BTC USD” is a great way to track the growth of active Bitcoin users. The search “BTC USD” is a proxy for the engagement of active Bitcoin users as they check the daily price. In the

Bitcoin

Bitcoin users double every 12 months

Google Trends is my friend. It’s a great tool for reporting search trends over time, and I’ve seen many people publish Trend’s charts of the search term “Buy Bitcoin”, to track Bitcoin’s interest by the public over time. I thought I’d use this tool to

Bitcoin

Estimated price impact from a Bitcoin ETF

This infographic of Bitcoin’s price is something I’ve been pondering today. It tells Bitcoin’s often dramatic price story in fundamental trend lines on top of which lives some serious doses of speculative activity. There’s a lot in this chart so lets break it down. * In late

Bitcoin

Three cats and a moon - a data driven analysis of Bitcoin trader psychology for predictive price signalling

Here at Woobull Labs we take data driven analysis very seriously. Today, I’m pleased to present the culmination of 4 years of data gathering and analysis on Bitcoin trader psychology. The sketch above depicts the basic rig we used for our epic research. The dataset includes readings over 4

Bitcoin

The network effects of volatility and liquidity, Bitcoin vs other payment coins

Altcoin volatility proportional to bubble size2016 has been a bull year for privacy coins. Earlier this year we saw mooning of Monero which saw subsequent pumps in other dark-coins including ShadowCash and Navcoin. Then we witnessed a mega-hyped launch of ZCash which peaked at an astounding $5.3k per coin.

Bitcoin

Estimating return potential for altcoins and Bitcoin

I personally think very few people grasp how to gauge the long term return potential of Bitcoin vs altcoins. I often hear people say that Bitcoin is no longer cheap and that altcoins have more return potential being in their earlier stages, while they chase returns similar to Bitcoin’s

Bitcoin

Does ViaBTC have veto power over Segwit activation?

Segregated Witness or Bitcoin Core release 13.1 has been released! This update promises to end a 2 year civil war within Bitcoin’s community over scaling, which unresolved, poses a systemic risk to the network. To the investor, the war has almost certainly had a bearish influence on bitcoin

Bitcoin

Bitcoin volatility will match major fiat currencies by 2019

Bitcoin was created in 2009 by a mysterious character who claimed it to be a payments network. But unlike most other payment networks like PayPal and Visa, it screwed with our minds by having its own token. A token that had a price that floated against other currencies. In basic

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Market Cap should be $40b according to Metcalfe's law

Metcalfe’s Law states the value of a network is proportional to the number of members squared. I thought it’d be fun to run the numbers on the Bitcoin Network. Since we don’t have solid figures on the number of active users on the network, I’ve had

Altcoins

Historical Bitcoin returns vs Altcoins

In my pursuit to analyse Altcoin returns if you had bought the entire market like an index fund, I just ran some numbers: PeriodBitcoinsAltcoinsSep 2013-2016470%1970%Sep 2015-2016170%268%Sep 2014-2015 -47%20%Sep 2013-2014300%369%I’ve yet to work out risk return on altcoins but I suspect the

Bitcoin

Block size debate : Increasing block size for capacity won't work

Bitcoin’s blockchain is like a telephone party line, it’ll work for a village but it won’t when it scales to the world. Pundits are debating whether we should increase the block size indefinitely to allow more capacity on the network. Well I guess it’s time to

Humour

Scaling Bitcoin. It'll breakout soon! Humour, not really.

Just for kicks, I thought I’d apply some trading technical analysis to the Bitcoin Network transactions per second graph. Turns out we’re in a flag pattern and she’s gonna breakout sometime before May 2017. Behind all this are some more serious fundamentals… this graph is logarithmic so

Bitcoin

Bitcoin long term price repeating?

Anyone one who studies the patterns of crypto-currencies will notice fractal-like patterns that repeat… I couldn't help but notice this long term repeating pattern for Bitcoin. History never repeats, but will it rhyme? Disclaimer: This isn't a proper technical analysis on future price, just a curiosity.