Signals - Woobull

Supply Shock, predicting price by quantifying intent to buy and sell

IntroductionIn any market, price is driven by demand and supply. This is a fundamental. The most obvious way of seeing this is in the bid and asks between buyers and sellers. A more nuanced way would be to wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the

Research

Introducing the Difficulty Ribbon, signaling the best times to buy Bitcoin

Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best times to buy Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so we can easily see the rate of change in difficulty. How it the Difficulty Ribbon worksThis visualisation of network

Research

Experiments on Cumulative Destruction

Two approaches to bring bitcoin-days-destroyed into the price domainOkay, so this article is now well overdue given the recent price action. BTC never rests! The last few months have been very productive in terms of discovering new valuation metrics based on on-chain analytics. The recent proposals using coindays destroyed by

Research

Why does on-chain volume show an overly bearish picture of the 2018-2019 Bitcoin market?

Let's delve into a mystery of this 2018-2019 bear market that David Puell and Murad Mahmudov and I have been exploring for months... Why does on-chain volume look so bearish while many of our other (to be published) metrics tell a more positive story? Up to now, whenever you saw

Markets

On peak indecisiveness

Summing Bitfinex's margin BTCUSD long and short positioning charts gives us an indication of speculator decisiveness. You can pull this chart up on TradingView with "BTCUSDLONGS+BTCUSDSHORTS". To be clear this is a view into speculator margin trade activity, in essence the volume they are borrowing from funders in order

Signals

NVT Signal, a new trading indicator to pick tops and bottoms

NVT Ratio is a new valuation indicator that I introduced last year based on network fundamentals, namely value flowing through the blockchain. I was delighted to find Dmitry Kalichki created a much more responsive variation which I've been calling NVT Signal. What is NVT Signal? Standard NVT Ratio is simply

Research

Introducing NVT Ratio (Bitcoin's PE Ratio), use it to detect bubbles

Preface February of this year, I tweeted a chart that presented the idea of a PE ratio for Bitcoin, something I temporarily called MTV Ratio before my buddy Chris Burniske suggested the less confusing term of NVT Ratio (Network Value[1] to Transactions Ratio). Later in May, Chris was the

Bitcoin

Three cats and a moon - a data driven analysis of Bitcoin trader psychology for predictive price signalling

Here at Woobull Labs we take data driven analysis very seriously. Today, I’m pleased to present the culmination of 4 years of data gathering and analysis on Bitcoin trader psychology. The sketch above depicts the basic rig we used for our epic research. The dataset includes readings over 4